Abstract
Abstract. An accurate prediction of pavement performance results in an effective plan for managing the highway network in cost-effective management and future maintenance strategies. However, in some dry climate countries, the available resources are not enough to conduct a periodic evaluation for their highways and apply a suitable maintenance action at a proper time. Therefore, the objective of this study is to utilize the available data in the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program for pavement sections that are in dry-non-freeze zones. The selection of LTPP pavement sections in dry-non-freeze zones attempts to represent the pavement performance in dry climate countries. The International Roughness Index (IRI) was used as a performance indicator because it reflects the level of riding quality, the comfort of road users, and the level of pavement condition. The random forests (RF) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models predict the IRI for flexible pavements from pavement age, traffic and climate data, pavement distress data, and structural properties. The results show that the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) in the MLR model is 0.70, whereas the RF model yields a relatively higher R 2 value of 0.85. Also, the results of the RF model show that the initial pavement roughness was the most significant variable that impacted the pavement roughness, as well as, pavement thickness, pavement age, and truck volume have a high impact on the IRI value.